How It Works
What are prediction markets?
Prediction markets are platforms where you can buy and sell shares based on the outcome of future events. If you buy “Yes” shares on “SpaceX IPO by 2026” and SpaceX does IPO by then, your shares pay out $1 each. If they don't, your shares are worth $0.
The price of a share (e.g., $0.65) represents the market's collective estimate of the probability (65%) that the event will happen. This makes prediction markets powerful tools for aggregating information and forecasting.
How to read the odds
$0.45
Market price for “Yes”
45%
Implied probability
If you pay $0.45 for a “Yes” share and the event happens, you receive $1.00. Your profit would be $0.55.
Where can you trade?
Polymarket
Crypto-based prediction market
Uses USDC on Polygon. Global access for viewing, trading restricted in some jurisdictions including the US.
Visit Polymarket →Kalshi
US-regulated prediction market
CFTC-regulated exchange. US dollars, available to US residents. Requires identity verification.
Visit Kalshi →How we calculate sentiment
Our sentiment score (0-100) aggregates multiple prediction markets for each company into a single number representing the market's overall outlook.
The Formula
- Collect all active prediction markets for a company
- Extract the “bullish probability” from each market
- Weight each probability by the market's trading volume
- Calculate the weighted average → Sentiment Score
Why volume weighting? A $1M volume market represents more “skin in the game” than a $10K market. Volume weighting means the sentiment score reflects where real money is being placed, not just what a few small markets suggest.
Risks and disclaimers
- ⚠Prediction markets involve substantial risk of loss. Only trade what you can afford to lose.
- ⚠Market prices reflect collective estimates, not guarantees of outcomes.
- ⚠Prevalu does not provide investment advice. We aggregate publicly available data.
- ⚠Trading availability varies by jurisdiction. Check local regulations.