xAI Long Basket

A diversified portfolio of prediction market positions to gain long exposure to xAI.

Investment Amount

Total Investment$1,000

Positions2

Max Payout$1,457If all positions win

Expected Value$1,000Probability-weighted

Positions

Grok 5 released by...?

Polymarket•Product

$875

Product releases (any date)YES

Win Prob71.5%

If Wins$1,224

Profit+$349(+40%)

Will xAI release a video game before 2027?

Kalshi•Product

$125

Outcome happensYES

Win Prob53.5%

If Wins$233

Profit+$108(+86%)

Scenario Analysis

All Bullish

All positions win • 25% probability

+$457+46%

All Bearish

All positions lose • 10% probability

-$1,000-100%

How to Execute This Basket

1.Create accounts on Polymarket and Kalshi if you haven't already.
2.Fund your accounts with USDC (Polymarket) or USD (Kalshi).
3.Click each market above to open it. For multi-outcome markets, expand to see individual allocations.
4.Place orders matching the allocations shown. Prices may vary - adjust quantities as needed.

Important Disclaimer

This basket is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Prediction markets involve significant risks including total loss of capital, illiquidity, and regulatory uncertainty. Prices shown are indicative and may differ at time of execution. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consider your risk tolerance before trading.