Anthropic Long Basket

A diversified portfolio of prediction market positions to gain long exposure to Anthropic.

Investment Amount

Total Investment$1,000

Positions3

Max Payout$12,328If all positions win

Expected Value$999Probability-weighted

Positions

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

Polymarket•IPO

$467

IPO happens (any valuation)YES

Win Prob4.3%

If Wins$10,980

Profit+$10,514(+2253%)

Claude 5 released by…?

Polymarket•Product

$467

Event happens April 30, 2026YES

Win Prob36.5%

If Wins$1,278

Profit+$811(+174%)

Will Anthropic release Claude 5 before Jan 2027?

Kalshi•Product

$67

Outcome happensYES

Win Prob94.5%

If Wins$70

Profit+$3(+5%)

Scenario Analysis

Partial Win

High-probability bets win, speculative bets lose • 45% probability

-$930-93%

All Bullish

All positions win • 25% probability

+$11,328+1133%

All Bearish

All positions lose • 10% probability

-$1,000-100%

How to Execute This Basket

1.Create accounts on Polymarket and Kalshi if you haven't already.
2.Fund your accounts with USDC (Polymarket) or USD (Kalshi).
3.Click each market above to open it. For multi-outcome markets, expand to see individual allocations.
4.Place orders matching the allocations shown. Prices may vary - adjust quantities as needed.

Important Disclaimer

This basket is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Prediction markets involve significant risks including total loss of capital, illiquidity, and regulatory uncertainty. Prices shown are indicative and may differ at time of execution. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consider your risk tolerance before trading.